Policy Brief | Policy Responses to Climate Impacts in Light of Fragility, Instability, and Climate Security Dynamics

In this policy brief, we critically examine the ‘double burden’ for countries that are highly vulnerable to and affected by climate change impacts while experiencing political instability, fragility, or conflict. Vulnerabilities compound and effective responses are constrained in these states, which receive disproportionately low and insufficient support through climate finance and tend to be forgotten in climate action. The global fragility landscape is becoming increasingly complex, marked by the convergence of unprecedented climate extremes, rising state fragility, and the related deepening of socio-economic vulnerabilities. The 1.5-degree limit of global average temperature increase was exceeded in 2024. There now is a high risk for escalating compound risks, with mounting human and economic losses, including loss of life and intense pressure on social cohesion. This comes as already more than two billion people live in highly or extremely fragile contexts – a number which is only expected to rise.

Policy responses in fragile and conflict-affected settings need to be thoroughly context-specific. Policy makers thus face complex challenges, the finance gap being a central obstacle. Current climate finance flows remain biased towards stable contexts, leaving critical gaps for those most in need. Concrete barriers that restrict access include donor risk perceptions, burdensome procedures, and preference for large-scale projects, which often exceed local capacity. Debt distress further amplifies the need for grants, yet the global share of grant-based finance remains limited. Despite these structural obstacles, locally embedded responses demonstrate the potential for flexible, trust-based, and highly adaptive approaches that bypass the rigidities of conventional finance.